By George Friedman
The Iranian Nuclear Game

Two major leaks occurred this weekend over the Iran matter.

In the first, The New York Times published an article reporting that staff at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear oversight group, had produced an unreleased report saying that Iran was much more advanced in its nuclear program than the IAEA had thought previously. According to the report, Iran now has all the data needed to design a nuclear weapon. The New York Times article added that U.S. intelligence was re-examining the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of 2007, which had stated that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.

The second leak occurred in the British paper The Sunday Times, which reported that the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s highly publicized secret visit to Moscow on Sept. 7 was to provide the Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The second revelation was directly tied to the first. There were many, including STRATFOR, who felt that Iran did not have the non-nuclear disciplines needed for rapid progress toward a nuclear device. Putting the two pieces together, the presence of Russian personnel in Iran would mean that the Iranians had obtained the needed expertise from the Russians. It would also mean that the Russians were not merely a factor in whether there would be effective sanctions but also in whether and when the Iranians would obtain a nuclear weapon.

Read the rest here!

You just can’t make this stuff up…………

Illusion. Meet Reality.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/04/content_12181647.htm

Wayne White and Pat Buchanan on the possibility of war with Iran.

Anybody taking odds on this happening?

Netanyahu: ‘We won’t be able to deter nuclear Iran’

Iran threatens to eliminate Israel

Carter embraces Hamas official at West Bank meeting

I think we have a problem Houston………….

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) — Just how close might a military confrontation between Iran and the United States be?

Though a war of words eased a bit recently, President Bush’s strong Iran warnings during his just completed Mideast trip, coupled with a ship standoff, are raising fears that a small incident could someday spiral — even by accident — into a real fight.

Read More
H/T to Matt at 1913Intel for the link.

Some of todays highlights:

Video: IRANIAN BOATS PROVOKE U.S. NAVY - CNN REPORT

Video: Michelle Malkin on the tears of Hillary

H/T to for the link. Click on the pic to watch this segment of the “Factor”. Fred is the guy on the right. I’m not so sure about Bill, he has a tendency to lean to the left when you look at it from my perspective. Nice job on Fred’s part anyhow.

My comment: Politics by nature shouldn’t be part and parcel to national security. It all too often gets to be the main focus for people however, and takes away from the real job at hand. It’s kind of like not paying attention when you’re operating presses or something I guess. Get distracted and you could loose some fingers…….

Israel’s Shattered Trust
By: P. David Hornik
The NIE has stunned Israel into facing the unthinkable.

Is Israel standing up for itself at last? The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran—particularly its lead sentence that “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program”—has caused wall-to-wall consternation in Israel, whose intelligence community is convinced that Iran has never, except possibly for a brief intermission, stopped working on its bomb.

(More)

Iran’s new chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is close to the same apocalyptic splinter group as Iran’s president,Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, reveals PJM analyst Meir Javedanfar.

Read the rest at Pajamas Media

DEBKAfile
Olmert sounds alarm: Iran has crossed red line for developing a nuclear weapon. It’s too late
MORE>>>>

On a lighter note, check out this bit of humor courtesy of HOT AIR.

Jeff Dunham makes the real terrorist talk. Funny stuff I guess, but I’m still not laughing.

This interview with Robert Spencer on Blog Talk Radio regarding Islam is educational to say the least. (60 Min.)

Then there’s this interesting piece from James Lewis at The American Thinker.

Did A’jad predict Armageddon at the UN?

Careful there now, You might just end up on the wrong end of the fork Iran.

This article by Alan Nathan is spot on target.

Arguments are erupting over whether or not we should go after Iran militarily in light of the widely reported NATO, European and American intelligence having shown physical proof of President Mahmoud Ahmedinijad’s Qud forces operating alongside al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

AL-QAEDA leaders in Iraq are planning the first “large-scale” terrorist attacks on Britain and other western targets with the help of supporters in Iran, according to a leaked intelligence report. Spy chiefs warn that one operative had said he was planning an attack on “a par with Hiroshima and Nagasaki” in an attempt to “shake the Roman throne”, a reference to the West. “Al-Qaeda Planning ‘Big British Attack,’” The Sunday Times UK, April 22, 2007

NATO officials say they have caught Iran red-handed, shipping heavy arms, C4 explosives and advanced roadside bombs to the Taliban for use against NATO forces, in what the officials say is a dramatic escalation of Iran’s proxy war against the United States and Great Britain.  “It is inconceivable that it is anyone other than the Iranian government that’s doing it,” said former White House counter-terrorism official Richard Clarke, an ABC News consultant. “Document: Iran Caught Red-Handed Shipping Arms to Taliban,” ABC News, June 6, 2007 

Three questions: Why treat proxy-war enemies differently than direct enemies?  Why respond only if the enemy’s threat is imminent?  And, why has the risk of collateral killing taken priority over defeating the enemy? 

If Iran were in full military attire and attacking us with their marked tanks and planes, nobody would question our entitlement to respond with full strength and rapid dispatch.  However, because they graft their fighters onto our enemies and assault us through these third-party conduits, our right to return fire is somehow diminished.  

Link HERE…

I figure this is a lot easier to do than trying to right lengthy and thought provoking articles. Hell, I never was geared for writing. I’m more inclined to do something that takes my mind off the deep thought process. I like the physics end of it a lot better even if it does require working your butt off. Sure, it can be a challenge on some days to get the chores done, but that’s only because I was thinking about it, and not doing it in the first place! Ya, I know, nothing in, nothing out.
Anyhow, here’s a couple of links to the real world for you today:

Hat tip to Matt at 1913 Intel for the first one from Daniel Pipes:

________________________________________________________

Israeli Jets vs. Iranian Nukes

by Daniel Pipes
New York Sun
June 12, 2007

[With slight differences from the NY Sun version]

Barring a “catastrophic development,” Middle East Newsline reports, George Bush has decided not to attack Iran. An administration source explains that Washington deems Iran’s cooperation “needed for a withdrawal [of U.S. forces] from Iraq.”

If correct, this implies the Jewish state stands alone against a regime that threatens to “wipe Israel off the map” and is building the nuclear weapons to do so. Israeli leaders are hinting that their patience is running out; Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz just warned that “diplomatic efforts should bear results by the end of 2007.”

Can the Israel Defense Forces in fact disrupt Iran’s nuclear program?

_________________________________________________________

Of course the following is really helping matters: Hat tip to LGF

It’s common knowledge that a lot of the munitions being used against us in Iraq are coming from Iran. Hell, everybody knows that the shelf life on ordnance requires you to use it and replace it on occasion. And besides, they’re just trying to help out their neighbors in the process.
Pagamas Media posted this video of an interview by Richard Miniter with Major Weber at Camp Victory in Iraq. IRANIAN WEAPONS. AMERICAN LIVES.

Major Weber and I have two things in common.

(1) I had the opportunity to do EOD work on a small scale while serving in the Central Highlands of South Vietnam. My normal day job was breaking rocks with 200-300 hole shots of TNT in a rock quarry and dealing with unexpected crap (getting shot at).

(2) We both still have all of our fingers intact.